CFB: Chilly November Pick Six

Posted: November 3rd, 2006 | Author: Zim | Filed under: NCAAF, OSU Football, TV | 3 Comments »

Ohio State’s Troy Smith breaks away from a Minne-ha-ha defender.   The Buckeyes will try to do to Illinois what they have done against Indiana and Minnesota the last few weeks.

Deep into conference play we go with nitty-gritty games of consequence.

by Mike Zimmer, Buckeyes Honk

We are into the home stretch now and the games are becoming more and more important for either bowl positioning or for those still in the National Title hunt–BCS rankings.   With the Big East being shaken out tonight (or so it would seem) and one less National Title contender standing afterwards, the one loss teams need to take care of business in keeping their dreams alive of being one of the teams that can slip into the BCS.   Such teams as Tennessee, Texas and now USC are all going to have to take care of the games in front of them first and then do a little peeking at the scoreboard.   As for this week, it’s all about the tough conference games and the jockeying for rankings.

URMissouri Tigers (7-2, 3-2)   AT
URNebraska Cornhuskers (6-3, 3-2)Time: Noon   TV: ABC Regional   Line: Nebraska -3 1/2

This one is for the lead in the Big XII North and the inside track for a match up with Texas in the Conference Championship game.   Both teams  are coming into the game off of a loss and for Nebraska  2-straight.   The Huskers got blown out in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys 41-29 last week after almost upsetting the Texas Longhonrs the week previous.   However, Missouri who started off (6-0) has dropped 2 of 3 and this looks to be the battle for a shot in the title game depending on how the rest of their seasons wash out.   For the Big Red, they have made a habit  lately of slumping in November–going just (2-6) over the last 2 seasons  during the month.   The Tigers  meanwhile never seemed to  get it going against the  Oklahoma Sooners last week in a 26-10 loss and  face a daunting task by now having to travel to Lincoln.   The Tigers have not won  there since 1978–coincidently the  last time the Tigers had a team make it to a major bowl.   With a win over the  Huskers, Missou  has 2 lesser battles against Iowa State and Kansas before  they would then get a shot at Texas in the Big XII Championship.   And with that you never know what might happen.   PREDICTION: I like Missouri here but barely.    Nebraska is tough at home even if they look as if they are folding up like Grand Ma’s TV  trays. Missou 19,  Nebraska 15

URMaryland Terrapins (6-2, 3-1)   AT
#17Clemson Tigers (7-2, 4-2)Time: Noon   TV: ESPN2   Line: Clemson -20

Why this game?   Well,  the game  over in Winston Salem has a lot to do with why this game is now important in the ACC Atlantic Division (more on that other game in a minute).   If  Wake Forest can upset Boston College and  Clemson can handle Maryland–the Tigers are back on pace to be the in the ACC Championship game.   Right along with that–Maryland has alot to prove in trying to get ranked and  has still yet to play both  B.C. and Wake and could slip in the back door with a late season charge and steal that spot.   The Terrapins come in riding high after they beat Florida State and in the process exorcising some demons.   They  don’t have a signature win over a quality foe but have the confidence to come in and compete with the tough Tigers whose dobber is down.   Clemson was undressed at Virginia Tech last Thursday night and now has an up-hill climb in trying to get even with Boston College, a team they lost to in week 2.   The Tigers are better than Maryland but it’s about momentum this time of year and Clemson has made a habit of such choke jobs as this.   Their 24-7 loss at Va Tech last week ruined what was possibly their best effort since the early 1980′s when they won a National Championship.   Maryland has their fate in their own hands and has to be thinking (if they pay any attention) that being a 20-point underdog  is a bit of a slap in the face.   Head Coach Ralph Friedgen’s team must run the  ball some with talented junior RB Lance Ball, something no one seems to do well against Clemson and then they have to not have their QB Sam Hollenbach turn it over–something else teams have failed to do against Clemson.   The Tigers need to get their Senior QB Will Proctor back with the program after a lousy effort at Blacksburg last week.   Last season Clemson beat the Terps  on the road 28-24 in a tight one and lead the series over the last 19-games 15-to-4.   I see this one being close again but history suggests that Maryland can’t get it done on the road.   PREDICTION: Clemson 23, Maryland 16

#20Boston College Eagles (7-1, 3-1)   AT
#23Wake Forest Demon Decons (7-1, 3-1)Time: 7pm   TV: ESPN   Line: Wake Forest +3 1/2

This one is the headliner in the ACC as Wake Forest and B.C. hold the inside track to the ACC Title Game.   No one still takes Boston College serious even though they have only one loss on the season–an early season slip up at Raliegh against N.C. State.   All they have done is play stout defense and error free boring ball control offense en route to 7-wins including beating Virginia Tech and Clemson.   Their path to the title game is easier for sure with only Duke, Maryland and Miami left on the schedule if they can beat the Decons.   Is there a better story out there then Wake Forest this season?   A tiny school by division I-A standards they have also overcome their egg-head, basketball school stigma AND the loss of their starting QB and RB on the year.   And yet–they still win.   They have played a soft schedule however and their only game against a good team–they lost to Clemson.   Even if they can pull a big upset  over B.C. they still have a brutal run of game at Florida State, Virginia Tech and then at Maryland to end the year.   Boston College should win this one going away and helping  Head Coach Tom O’Brien keep in the running for National Coach of the year.   However, this series has been awfully close over the past few seasons and Wake has pulled the upset 2 of 3 years.   Last year’s game was looking like another Decons win before B.C. rallied from 17-0 and 30-21 to win 35-30.    PREDICTION: B.C. allows Wake to hanf around but wins late 27-23.

URArizona State  Sun Devils (5-3, 2-3)   AT
UROregon State Beavers (5-3, 3-2)Time: TBA  TV: FSN Regional     Line: Oregon State -5

The PAC-10 doesn’t offer us a headliner this week, but give both of these teams their due.   After being underwhelming to start the  year, each has redeemed themselves a bit  including last week Oregon State knocking off U.S.C. 33-31.    Neither team has any hope of catching U.S.C or California  for the PAC-10 title, but this one should be an offensive shoot out and entertaining at the very  least.   Both  teams  could become bowl eligible with a win and in Oregon State’s case get ranked.    This despite the fact that they were throttled by both Boise State (42-14) and California (41-13).   The Beavers don’t have history on their side either as they are 2-16-1 against the Sun Devils since 1983 and last beat  Arizona State in 2003 (45-17).   Arizona State fizzled  early in the year but  could  resurect ranking aspirations and bowl consideration with a win and 2 winnable games in their final 3 games after that.   This one will come down to  QB play and Oregon State’s Matt Moore is  Jeckyll and Hyde at times.   One week good, the next awful.   The same could be said for Arizona State’s Rudy Carpenter who as a Sophmore has disappointed since being annointed by Head Coach Dirk Koetter at the start of the season.   PREDICTION: Oregon State wins their 4th straight and  gets into the  Top 25 with the win  37-28.

#14L.S.U.  Bayou Bengals (6-2, 3-2)   AT
#6 Tennessee Volunteers (7-1, 3-1)Time: 3:30pm   TV: CBS   Line: Tennessee +3 1/2

How in the heck has LSU pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes including Las Vegas?   The  Bayou Bengals are favored in Rocky Top even though they are lower ranked and have one more loss than the Vols.   Well, sure, they lost to Auburn and  Florida not exactly slouches–but come on, a little respect for Phil Fulmer’s boys already!   The Vols come in to this one with hope alive that perhaps Florida can screw the pooch and slip up allowing  the Big Orange a shot at the SEC Title game.   Florida does have  pesky Vanderbilt on the road along with a date with  the Old Ball  Coach and the Gamecocks of South Carolina.   Tennessee has a tough couple of weeks  themselves starting with  LSU before having to  travel to Arkansas next week.   But what about those LSU  Tigers?   Are they really that good?   They have a tough, tough defense for sure but their offense has failed to come to play in their big games against Florida (lost 23-10) and Auburn (lost 7-3).   QB JaMarcus Russell is a huge threat to run or pass but his play in the big games has yet to be elevated at all.    Tennessee may be known for their vaunted offensive attack lead by QB Eric Ainge but they have managed to keep teams down via the defense as well.   The Vols have won 5-straight since their one point loss to  Florida and could be (as evidence in their  consistant rankings by the KegeratorNation.com voters) be better than both Auburn and Florida right now.   This one is important for Tennessee on many levels and could be a statement.   PREDICTION: Tennessee  keeps on rolling 27-14.

#1Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0, 5-0)   AT
URIllinois Fighting Illini (2-7, 1-4)Time: 3:30pm   TV: ESPN2    Line: Illinois  +24

Back in 2002, the Ohio State Buckeyes were rolling along undefeated when they had to  travel to Champaign-Urbana to play the seemingly out-manned Illini in a late season game.   Illinois took the Buckeyes to overtime before relenting and the Buckeyes went home to beat Meatchicken.   This season, it is much the same with Illinois out-manned and underwhelming once again in dropping 4-straight and looking like another push-over.    Last year the situation was much the same and Illinois decided not to show up in a 40-2 dump-trucking by the Buckeyes in  which Illinois’ only score came on a returned blocked extra point try.   The Buckeyes have handled their business  in steam rolling along over lesser teams like Indiana and Minnesota and a few weeks  back on the road at Michigan State–another so-called dangerous team on the road.    It scares me though that  back-to-back road games against  teams that have absolutely nothing to lose  comes along with the Buckeyes looking squarely at their date with that team up north.   I can’t but help thinking that this should be another cake walk but  Illinois is  the most scary of the teams that has come up lately.   They have been ahead in each of their last 4-losses but have choked away the game late.   Last week against Wisconsin, the Illini’s freshman QB Juice Williams completed only 2-of-14 passes as the  Badgers bounced him and the Illinois offense all over the field.    The Buckeyes have too much speed and too much defense for this  team to  hang around realistically and if they come out and do what they  did against Minnesota in scoring right away–they could roll the Illini up like they did last  year.   But allowing this team to hang around is something that they do not want to do. The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring defense  and in their last  4-games  have allowed 17-points and that is all.   I see another low score in the board for an  opponent.   PREDICTION:  Ohio State 37, Illinois  7

Other games of note:

#19 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2)–at–#21 Texas A&M Aggies(8-1)This one got bumped by the  Buckeyes preview.   Why?   Well, no one really cares about this game do you?   OK,OK, it  should be a good game but Big XII football including Oklahoma and Texas A&M just bores  me.   The Sooners  play their second tough roadie in back-to-back weeks after beating Missou last week.    The  Aggies are trying to win some respect and make it to their showdown against the Longhorns  later this month with a shot at stealing their way into the Big XII title game and possibel BCS party crash.   I don’t see that happening but they could make it interesting.   Last season  this was a close one  with Oklahoma winning 36-30.   The series has been close other than in 2003 when Oklahoma beat the Aggies 77-0!   I see Texas  A&M pulling off the mild upset.

#12 Arkansas Razorbacks (7-1)–at–South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3)This one is interesting with the Freshman QB of Arkansas getting yet another tough road test.   The Hoggs still have a hold on the SEC West title and  cannot afford a slip up on the road if they hope to crash the BCS party by getting  an invite with a SEC Title win.   South Carolina and  The Old Ball Coach have been close but no  cigar and lost last week after a tough game with Tennessee.   It see another close game and perhaps a slight upset shot by South Carolina but Houston Nutt’s team has been really good of late.   Well, it’s hard to tell really though–since upsetting Auburn, the Razorbacks have played S.E. Missou St., Ole Miss and Louisiana-Monroe.   Good God!   UPSET ALERT!!!

Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3)–at–#16 Wisconsin Badgers (8-1)No one believes in the Badgers.   They’re going to finsih (11-1) most likely and get  no better than an invite to the Outback or Citrus Bowl.   However,  Penn State has been a thorn in their side since joining the Big Ten and has beaten them the last 2-meetings including  last year.   The Nittany Lions need a  good  win to get an invite to a bowl  other than the Sun or Alamo.   If they don’t shape up, they’ll  get shipped to the Motor City or Insight Bowl!

Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2)–at–Miami Hurricanes (5-3)The Hurricanes are trying to avoid a 4th loss and being burried in the ACC Coastal division while the Hokies are trying to get their swagger back after bad losses.   The Hokies beat  Clemson badly  last week while Miami has struggled in a 20-15  win over awful Duke and then a road loss at Georgia Tech last week.   This was supposed to  be a marquee ACC match-up (that’s why it’s  on ABC at 8pm) but has been relegated to  being the decider of who gets to the Champs Sports Bowl or Music City Bowl.

Air Force Falcons (3-4)–at–Army Black Knights (3-6)Army still has hopes for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy  (if they can wrestle it away from  Notre Dame)  and  they get their  first  try at  it with a win over Air Force.   The Servie academy games always are interesting to me and I’m not so sure why.    Perhaps it’s the offensive schemes that are out-moded and under-manned that make it so  odd and fun to watch.   Air Force comes in with 3 losses in their last 4 games including last week’s 33-14 loss to Brigham Young.   They  lost to  Navy back in week five 24-17 and are on the outside looking in at the Service Academy’s top  prize.   Army meanwhile has lost 3-striaght including last week’s 42-28 loss to Tulane.   This series  has been tight and the games close of late before a period of time when Air Force ruled supreme.   The  Black  Knights of the Hudson won last years game 27-24.  
                         

       

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